Walmart shares are up 312% during outgoing CEO Doug McMillon's tenure. Here's how that compares to its rivals

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When incoming Walmart CEO John Furner steps into the retailer’s top role, he will try to follow up a period of dramatic share growth that many of Walmart’s rivals have failed to match. Sources indicate that walmart’s stock has more than quadrupled since outgoing CEO Doug McMillon began in the role in February 2014.

Across nine of the 12 calendar years when was Walmart’s leader, the company posted positive stock returns. Among Walmart’s main rivals in the retail and grocery business, only Amazon and Costco have had better stock returns since McMillon took the job. According to reports that meanwhile, Walmart’s stock has outperformed those of competitors like Target, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Kroger and Albertsons.

McMillon will officially step down at the end of January, but will stay on as executive chairman and advisor. While Furner will face a challenge in replicating the company’s performance under his predecessor, he has been a key catalyst for the company’s success as CEO of its largest sector, Walmart’s U.S. Along with huge gains on Wall Street, McMillon oversaw a significant period of growth for the nation’s largest grocer, which included sharp sales increases, wage hikes for hourly workers and transformation of the nation’s low-price leader into a major e-commerce player. He also steered the retailer through the tumult of a global pandemic, historic levels of inflation and higher tariffs.

Evidence suggests that sales during McMillon’s first three years in the role were roughly flat — with revenues of $486 billion, $482 billion and $485 billion in the fiscal years ending January 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively. Yet those years were followed by steady growth, and those gains have accelerated since 2021, after the Covid pandemic pushed more people to shop online and inflation nudged even wealthier shoppers to seek value. Walmart posted annual revenue of about $681 billion in the fiscal year ended earlier this year, an approximately 40% jump from the company’s annual revenue the first year of McMillon’s tenure.

This year, Walmart is on track to post annual revenues of over $700 billion for the first time ever. Ironically, however, it is also expected to lose its crown as the largest retailer by annual revenue to its biggest e-commerce rival, Amazon. Earlier this year, Amazon leapfrogged Walmart in quarterly sales for the first time. Compared to Walmart, it has a different mix to its business because of its massive cloud computing, advertising and seller services businesses.

Stock gains by Amazon have outpaced Walmart’s during the years of McMillon’s tenure, with 1,225% share gains by the tech giant compared to a 312% increase by Walmart. Sources indicate that however, Walmart’s performance on Wall Street has far surpassed big-box retail competitor Target’s across McMillon’s time as CEO. Shares of Target are up about 60% since February 2014, compared to Walmart’s 312% gains.

During the years of the Covid pandemic, Target’s steep share gains surpassed those of Walmart. Yet the Minneapolis-based cheap chic retailer’s annual sales have been roughly stagnant for about four years and dragged down its stock performance. Like Walmart, Target is preparing for a leadership change in February. According to reports that last month, Target stated Michael Fiddelke, its chief operating officer and former CFO, would succeed longtime CEO Brian Cornell.

Costco also stands out as a competitor that has posted steeper share gains than Walmart. Sources indicate that shares of the warehouse club retailer, which competes with both Walmart stores and those of its warehouse chain, Sam’s Club, have shot up by more than 700% during the years of McMillon’s tenure. Walmart’s supermarket competitors — Kroger and Albertsons, in particular — have lagged behind that.

Shares of Kroger, which includes about two dozen grocery chains including Fred Meyer and Ralphs, climbed 265% during McMillon’s tenure. Shares of Albertsons, which includes Safeway, Tom Thumb and other grocery chains, rose by only 16%. Albertsons went public in 2020, which gave it less time for stock gains. For about two of those years, from roughly 2022 to 2024, Kroger and Albertsons also sought to merge their two companies into a larger grocer that could better compete with Walmart, Costco, Amazon and others.

Sources indicate that the deal was ultimately blocked by a U.S. Evidence suggests that judge, after the Federal Trade Commission sued to stop the merger. Dollar stores also fell short of Walmart’s stock performance while McMillon was CEO.

According to reports that dollar Tree and Dollar General, who compete with Walmart in offering groceries and other items at low prices, posted 104% and 85% share gains, respectively, compared to Walmart’s 312% increase. Notably, both dollar store banners’ stocks outperformed Walmart’s during some of those years, yet have been struggling more recently. Walmart’s stock was about flat Friday following the retirement announcement, and shares have climbed about 13% this year. — CNBC’s Tom Rotunno contributed to this report.

As the situation continues to develop, industry participants in Finance will likely monitor outcomes closely.

— Based on reporting from cnbc.com

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